Defining the Market
Aeras and its partners demonstrated the market potential and future public health impact of new TB vaccines to draw two important sectors to the table—public health decision makers looking for the greatest health and economic impact and industry partners who determine whether investment in TB vaccines is a viable option. Support from both public and private sources at critical points along the research and development pathway is absolutely necessary to sustain TB vaccines R&D and drive toward the development and delivery of new vaccines.
Public sector investment at the translational phase of development – from the lab to the early stages of clinical trials – is essential to sustaining the research costs and helping to demonstrate a candidate’s viability. Private sector investments to fund the later-stage, more expensive large-scale clinical trials are essential and assure a positive return on investment. Our market assessment used a global health impact model that shows a significant number of new TB cases averted over time and an attractive financial market value for new TB vaccines, both which are needed to motivate the public and private health communities.
The model evaluated (1) a pre- and post-exposure vaccine for adults and adolescents; and (2) a vaccine for infants that would replace the current BCG vaccine.
Key drivers assessed include:
- Vaccine introduction dates, by country
- Vaccine efficacy rates
- Coverage rates
- Tiered pricing by country income level
Even with conservative estimates on price and coverage rates, the 10-year market opportunity for an adolescent and adult vaccine is projected to be approximately $13 billion to $14 billion, while the market for an infant vaccine would be about $700 million to $1 billion. The initial stages of commercialization will be focused on the high-income countries and upper- and middle-income countries, where the vaccination campaigns will focus primarily on healthcare workers, travelers, military and other high-risk populations. This will allow for scaling up capacity and building infrastructure for larger scale immunization campaigns.
The data for the 183 countries used in our assessment is from the World Bank Atlas definition:
- low income ($1,025 gross national income or less);
- lower middle income ($1,026 - $4,035)
- upper middle income ($4,036 - $12,475)
- high income ($12,476 or more)